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张学锋:globalwarming

2020-8-11 18:00| 发布者: admin| 查看: 38| 评论: 0

摘要: 朱星宇的回答: GlobalwarmingistheincreaseintheaveragetemperatureoftheEarth'snear-surfaceairandoceanssincethemid-20thcenturyanditsprojectedcontinuation. Globalsurfacetemperatureincreased0.74±0.18°C(1 ...

朱星宇的回答:

GlobalwarmingistheincreaseintheaveragetemperatureoftheEarth'snear-surfaceairandoceanssincethemid-20thcenturyanditsprojectedcontinuation. Globalsurfacetemperatureincreased0.74±0.18°C(1.33±0.32°F)duringthe100yearsendingin2005.[1][2]TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)concludesthatmostofthetemperatureincreasesincethemid-twentiethcenturyis"verylikely"duetotheincreaseinanthropogenicgreenhousegasconcentrations.[3][2]Naturalphenomenasuchassolarvariationandvolcanoesprobablyhadasmallwarmingeffectfrompre-industrialtimesto1950andasmallcoolingeffectfrom1950onward.[4][5]Thesebasicconclusionshavebeenendorsedbyatleast30scientificsocietiesandacademiesofscience,[6]includingallofthenationalacademiesofscienceofthemajorindustrializedcountries.[7][8][9]Whileindividualscientistshavevoiceddisagreementwiththesefindings,[10]theoverwhelmingmajorityofscientistsworkingonclimatechangeagreewiththeIPCC'smainconclusions.[11][12] Climatemodelprojectionsindicatethatglobalsurfacetemperaturewilllikelyriseafurther1.1to6.4°C(2.0to11.5°F)duringthetwenty-firstcentury.[3]Theuncertaintyinthisestimatearisesfromuseofdifferingestimatesoffuturegreenhousegasemissionsandfromuseofmodelswithdifferingclimatesensitivity.Anotheruncertaintyishowwarmingandrelatedchangeswillvaryfromregiontoregionaroundtheglobe.Althoughmoststudiesfocusontheperiodupto2100,warmingisexpectedtocontinueformorethanathousandyearsevenifgreenhousegaslevelsarestabilized.Thisresultsfromthelargeheatcapacityoftheoceans.[3] Increasingglobaltemperaturewillcausesealevelstoriseandwillchangetheamountandpatternofprecipitation,likelyincludinganexpanseofthesubtropicaldesertregions.[13]Otherlikelyeffectsincludeincreasesintheintensityofextremeweatherevents,changesinagriculturalyields,modificationsoftraderoutes,glacierretreat,speciesextinctionsandincreasesintherangesofdiseasevectors. MostnationalgovernmentshavesignedandratifiedtheKyotoProtocolaimedatreducinggreenhousegasemissions.Politicalandpublicdebatecontinuesregardingwhat,ifany,actionshouldbetakentoreduceorreversefuturewarmingortoadapttoitsexpectedconsequences.

贾继海的回答:

GlobalwarmingistheincreaseintheaveragetemperatureoftheEarth'snear-surfaceairandoceanssincethemid-20thcenturyanditsprojectedcontinuation. Globalsurfacetemperatureincreased0.74±0.18°C(1.33±0.32°F)duringthe100yearsendingin2005.[1][2]TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)concludesthatmostofthetemperatureincreasesincethemid-twentiethcenturyis"verylikely"duetotheincreaseinanthropogenicgreenhousegasconcentrations.[3][2]Naturalphenomenasuchassolarvariationandvolcanoesprobablyhadasmallwarmingeffectfrompre-industrialtimesto1950andasmallcoolingeffectfrom1950onward.[4][5]Thesebasicconclusionshavebeenendorsedbyatleast30scientificsocietiesandacademiesofscience,[6]includingallofthenationalacademiesofscienceofthemajorindustrializedcountries.[7][8][9]Whileindividualscientistshavevoiceddisagreementwiththesefindings,[10]theoverwhelmingmajorityofscientistsworkingonclimatechangeagreewiththeIPCC'smainconclusions.[11][12] Climatemodelprojectionsindicatethatglobalsurfacetemperaturewilllikelyriseafurther1.1to6.4°C(2.0to11.5°F)duringthetwenty-firstcentury.[3]Theuncertaintyinthisestimatearisesfromuseofdifferingestimatesoffuturegreenhousegasemissionsandfromuseofmodelswithdifferingclimatesensitivity.Anotheruncertaintyishowwarmingandrelatedchangeswillvaryfromregiontoregionaroundtheglobe.Althoughmoststudiesfocusontheperiodupto2100,warmingisexpectedtocontinueformorethanathousandyearsevenifgreenhousegaslevelsarestabilized.Thisresultsfromthelargeheatcapacityoftheoceans.[3] Increasingglobaltemperaturewillcausesealevelstoriseandwillchangetheamountandpatternofprecipitation,likelyincludinganexpanseofthesubtropicaldesertregions.[13]Otherlikelyeffectsincludeincreasesintheintensityofextremeweatherevents,changesinagriculturalyields,modificationsoftraderoutes,glacierretreat,speciesextinctionsandincreasesintherangesofdiseasevectors. MostnationalgovernmentshavesignedandratifiedtheKyotoProtocolaimedatreducinggreenhousegasemissions.Politicalandpublicdebatecontinuesregardingwhat,ifany,actionshouldbetakentoreduceorreversefuturewarmingortoadapttoitsexpectedconsequences.


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